There’s a buzz in the spring air: sun shining, birdies singing, and buyers buying. And boy, are the buyers buying quickly!

As East Bay agents, we share stories. First we heard of one home in the Berkeleyhills attracting 10 offers; now it’s several homes each week receiving over a dozen offers. One of Red Oak’s listings last week, a 2/1 bungalow priced at $399K, had 40 disclosure packets out and received 16 offers, several of them all-cash. Another Red Oak listing, which was in the $1M+ range and had been on the market for over a year with several price reductions, went from having no offers in December to receiving three offers, all cash, at more than $100K over list. Same agent, same presentation, but a new market.

Most neighborhoods saw prices up quarter to quarter, but not all

But this isn’t just happening in Berkeley. It’s happening in several East Bay neighborhoods. It’s even happening in other parts of the country where just a couple of months ago they were still using the term “glut of inventory.”New York and Boston, Palm Springs and Key West are all on fire.

What’s most striking is how fast buyers ramped up their pace. Here’s why:

INVENTORY: Seasonally low inventory is a big part of the equation, with sellers not being ready with their homes as quickly as the buyers are ready to buy. Oakland, CA just ranked first in a list of nearly 150 metro areas tracking decreases in inventory since the same time last year, with a decrease in inventory of 52%.

INTEREST RATES: There was a slight uptick in interest rates in March. Lulled into feeling that those low rates might last forever, even the small change spurred lots of activity.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: An increase in consumer confidence and improved economic conditions are also part of the equation. As San Francisco experiences a new form of tech boom, we in the East Bay benefit from what I call a “trickle over” effect. The sharp rise in rental rates in the City are putting pressure on our East Bay rents, and shifting the buy vs. rent equation in the direction of buy.

INACTION FATIGUE: Basic human nature is in the equation. Buyers have waited for the mythical bottom of the market, waited for the great deals, and many are simply tired of waiting.

VALIDATION: Our manager put it well: “having other buyers write offers on the home you want validates your choice.”

For now, it’s a frustrating time for buyers. It’s difficult to know what would be an appropriate offer if there are many other bidders. During the first quarter anywhere from 18-53% of the homes were selling over their original list prices. Of those selling over, the amount over varied by city and price point, but was within a range of 1-12% over.

Many of the most relevant sales are still pending, but the anecdotes suggest much higher over-bidding in just the past few weeks. Those sales will reset comparable sales even higher. As a colleague rightly pointed out, buyers are not watching the market, they are makingthe market.

There was lots of over-bidding in Q1. How different will this chart look for Q2?

So is this a mini-bubble, a temporary reaction to more buyers being ready than sellers? We saw a somewhat similar heating up of the market in early spring of 2010, but that was clearly a result of the Federal tax credit. Median prices actually dropped in the fall when the credit ended. Will the same happen this fall?

When interest rates inevitably rise, will that reduction in purchasing power lower activity, and perhaps prices as well? It is unlikely that this pace of activity can be sustained.  Once these late March/early April sales have recorded, many more sellers are likely to have the confidence to bring their homes to market. How many of them will then become buyers themselves?

For now, there are more questions than firm answers. But we do know that as in all real estate matters, market definition is hyper local. Not all zip codes are seeing the same buyer demand, and some zip codes could still face additional threat from the remaining inventory of foreclosures. Over the next few weeks I’m going to look at some of my local zip codes to check out what’s happening on a hyperlocal level.

For now, stay above the fray and focus on long-term goals, and if you’re wondering about your zip code, give me a call!

Arlene at last year's e-cycling event--look at the size of that monitor!

On Friday, April 20th from 10 am – 3 pm I will be pleased to help collect electronics items from members of the Berkeley, CA community as part of our annual Earth Day celebration. On behalf of the Berkeley Association of REALTORS (BAR), each year for the past three years I’ve organized this e-cycling event to encourage both my fellow Realtors and our clients to reduce, reuse and recycle. It’s important to realize that not all electronics recycling is the same. Unfortunately, too many places simply collect electronics and ship them to third world countries. That’s why I’m pleased that we at BAR are able to partner with GreenCitizen, a company that recycles responsibly. We’re also pleased to help them celebrate their first year of business in Berkeley at their eco-center on Shattuck Avenue near University Avenue. We’ll be accepting just about anything that has a cord or a battery. With regret, batteries and light bulbs we cannot accept.

REALTORS are especially dependent on technology now, so it’s crucial that we do our part to recycle our obsolete products in a responsible manner. But that’s just one aspect of the larger problem known as Designing for the Dump. Check out this entertaining and smart video about this global problem–and then visit BAR on Friday with your lifeless laptop!

Members of the Crowden School provided music

Ribbon cutting to open the renovated North Berkeley Library

Beautiful weather, grateful neighbors, happy elected officials and Kosher macaroons and brownies all contributed to a “feel good” spring gathering in my neighborhood. We assembled at the corner of Hopkins and The Alameda in Berkeley, CA today to celebrate the re-opening of a newly updated, expanded and revitalized North Berkeley Library. Mayor Tom Bates, Assemblywoman Loni Hancock, City Councilmember Laurie Capitelli and Betty Olds were all on hand to cut the ribbon to officially open the newly restored library. Capitelli reminded the crowd that Northbrae, the neighborhood where the library is located, was designated one of the Top 10 neighborhoods in the US last year. “It’s the people like you,” Capitelli said as he gestured to the crowd gathered in front of the library “that make this neighborhood such a special place to live.” More than a hundred people attended the festivities, complete with string quartet from The Crowden School.

Betty Olds pointed out that several of Northbrae’s key features are located on small islands, as is this library. The circular fire station, as well as the much-loved bear fountain at the Arlington Circle are also located on islands. The North Berkeley Branch is the first of four branch libraries to be rehabilitated with use of Measure FF funds. But the majority of the funds available are a result of a private fundraising effort, headed up by Linda Schacht Gage. The Neighorhood Libraries Campaign has raised $2.2M of a budgeted $3.5M goal to help restore these important community resources.

The North Berkeley Branch Library, designed 75 years ago by James Placheck as a community center, has always been a local favorite. It was constructed as a WPA project in 1936, and became a City of Berkeley Landmark in 2001. Before the restoration the space was “quaint” and “cozy.” It could also have been described as a bit congested, with tall shelves of books in long rows taking up most of the main room. The historically sensitive restoration has revealed gorgeous stenciled beam ceilings, and expanded the available light and space. A new meeting room with advanced A/V systems is available at a lower level. On the way to the meeting room one passes two handsome tree-motif metal art pieces. Original wood reading tables have been restored, providing much more open space for visitors to enjoy the collections, containing more than 50,000 items.

At the end of the main reading room is now a quartet of leather arm chairs grouped around a gas fireplace. “I suspect there will be competition for these chairs,” commented Ken Miller, a North Berkeley resident. I just may be one of the people trying to grab one of those comfy chairs. What an idyllic place to sit on a chilly day, reading from their extensive collection of design, cooking, or travel magazines. It’s one of the few guilty pleasures with very little guilt: it contributes zero calories and it’s free!

Mayor Tom Bates enjoys the new North Berkeley Library

The North Berkeley Library will be closed for Easter Sunday (and all Sundays), and then will reopen Monday at 10 am for its normal operating schedule: Mon & Tues 10-6; Wed & Thurs 12-8; Fri & Sat 10-6.  For more on the Branch Library visit their website. To view more of my photos from this event, visit my Flickr folder.

I’ve been watching the new tile roof be installed, the new benches and bike racks being added. The exterior is clean and fresh, but with the wonderful tiles and romanesque details intact. Finally, tomorrow we will all get to see the much-anticipated changes to the interior of this charming neighborhood resource and landmark. I can’t wait to spend some time again indulging in the quiet pleasure of reading garden, or design or travel magazines in this lovely building!

New benches grace the North Berkeley library

This local branch of the public library system was designed 75 years ago d by James Plachek.  According to the library website we can expect  ”a sensitive renovation and expansion to improve infrastructure, ADA accessibility and safety features. ” I’m especially pleased to learn that my local Northbrae branch library will now have a lower-level meeting room, complete with AV equipment. The grand reopening celebration will begin at 1:00 p.m. with a ribbon cutting ceremony. Library services will begin at 2 p.m.  Local and state officials will be on hand, along with music and light refreshments from Indie Cakes. The public is invited–see you there!

I was pleased to be asked to provide an answer to a current real estate question for the San Francisco Chronicle. They allow only 200 words in the print version, so here is a more thorough answer to the question:

Get help- Most buyers start their search by looking at homes, in person or online, but buyers truly benefit from working with an agent early in the process. It’s tempting to approach a home search the way I like to approach food: “Life is short; eat dessert first.” But when getting ready to buy a home, you need to start with the nutritious part. By that I mean you need to start with the basics, even though that may not seem nearly as much fun as starting by looking at homes. Why? Because there is so much information and there are so many neighborhoods and properties to consider.  A local Realtor will help you prioritize. They can guide you through the vast amount of data and point you to what’s valuable – or what’s inaccurate – for your particular search. More importantly, they can give you the back story you won’t find online, and put your search into a hyper-local context. Deep, current market knowledge is invaluable.

Get pre-approved- This spring market is already much more competitive than this time last year. If buyers want to take advantage of the still-low rates and discounted prices, and succeed in acquiring a home appropriate to their needs and budget, they need to start not by driving around, but by sitting down with a trusted advisor. A local agent can recommend loan professionals who are experienced with local transactions, and are a good match for your situation and personal style.

Being completely pre-approved for a loan by a local professional is essential, as lenders have changed their requirements over the past months and have become increasingly particular. Your income and asset documents, and a strong credit report, need to be reviewed through a Desktop Underwriting system before you are truly ready for your home search. Only a property appraisal should remain for final loan approval.

Once buyers know how much they can actually afford, and what their comfort level is for payments, they will benefit from prioritizing. I ask my buyers to write down the top three assets that a home must possess, as well as three qualities they’d like to avoid. If it’s a couple I ask them to prepare their lists separately—the differences are often very educational! What tolerance do you have for fixing a home? Is it important to have a second bathroom? Would a half bath do? How long is an acceptable commute? The answers will determine the homes and neighborhoods that should be included in the search. Once you have an agreed list of priorities, don’t be seduced by a beautiful home that fits none of your priorities. Unless your needs are very restricted, there always will be other homes to consider!

Multiple offers are common now in many neighborhoods of Berkeley, North Oakland and environs. Make sure your Realtor is well-connected within the community, will actively keep in touch with the listing agents and will present your offer in person if given the opportunity. This is something I always do for my buyers but not all agents do, and that can make the difference between your offer being accepted, or not

Sunday open houses can indeed serve as mini-architecture tours. This Sunday a home with some superb details will be open at 150 Arlington Avenue in Kensington. I’ve always admired the rustic exterior with its redwood timbers, and if you visit you’ll enjoy a delightful arbor in the back garden, also quite rustic in design. So the interior surprises with the formality and elegance of the details. According to the listing agent, Tricia Swift of Grubb, the carved balusters, mantel and the wonderful floral-patterned stenciled box beams were recycled from a former mansion in the Claremont area when the house was built in the mid-1940’s. I love the idea of early creative re-use! The home is a treat to view, and the sheer size of the rooms remarkable; the home totals nearly 5,000 sq. ft. It last sold in 2007 for $1,840,000, and the current owners made further improvements, including the development of a lower level. It is currently listed at $1,575,000 and will be open on Sunday from 2 – 4:30 pm.

“Historic Preservation – What it Is and Is Not” is the topic of a lecture on Tuesday the 27^th at 7 pm. This is one of three free events jointly sponsored by Berkeley Architectural Heritage Association (BAHA) and the California Preservation Foundation (CPF). It will be held at the Old City Hall, 2134 Martin Luther King Jr Way (John Bakewell Jr. and Arthur Brown, 1907). This should be an interesting presentation about historic preservation in the 21^st century, from the fundamentals of what it entails, and how it can benefit the Berkeley Community. For more information visit Berkeleyheritage.com

This past week brought rain to the Bay Area, and the emergence of wisteria around town, one of my favorite plants.  In this atmosphere of cleansing and renewal, I’ve made a change of brokerage. I already feel some of that sense of renewal in my business! I have joined Red Oak Realty, and am now part of the Solano Avenue Office, the closest office to my home. It’s nice to be located in my actual neighborhood, but I joined them primarily because the new leadership at Red Oak has been really impressive over the past couple of years.  They provide wonderful support for their agents, which ultimately benefits my clients. The Red Oak leadership team has been amazingly responsive so far, and the agents all seem supportive. They’re also coming out with more sophisticated branding (the red boxes will go), and they’re also working on more luxury materials. They have a terrific  in-house fellow who just works on social media and on-line presence, and I look forward to working closely with him to expand my on-line presence. It also will be good to be part of a larger network of agents. It is my sincere hope that Red Oak and my brand, GreenBungalows, will be complementary indeed!

If you’d like to read more about the change check out the press release. My phone and email remain unchanged: call me direct at 510.717.1799, or email at eastbay.bungalows@gmail.com

The beginning of a new month brings some special opportunities for art lovers in the San Francisco Bay Area:

THURSDAY
Free First Thursdays: the Berkeley Art Museum  Open until 5 pm on Thursday.
Special exhibitions include:

FRIDAY
Oakland Art Murmur: First Fridays Art Walk  This is a really lively, fun way to get to know more about the art scene, as well as the hopping restaurant scene in Oakland.SATURDAY
53rd annual HUGE White Elephant Sale in Oakland. What can I say! It’s a free event, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be tempted to spend money on some of the thousands of treasures collected over the year by the auxiliary that supports the Oakland Art Museum. It’s a great cause, and tremendous people-watching possibilities!

SUNDAY
Asian Art Museum Free Day The museum is open 10 – 5 pm. Plan to get there early, as free admission is capacity-controlled, and cannot be guaranteed. There is a $5 fee to see the Maharaja exhibition–and well worth it!

Enjoy these great free opportunities within our beautiful Bay area!

It’s been part of my mantra to sellers for years: correct pricing is the key to a successful transaction. It not only determines the obvious: a property that sells instead of not selling, but the entire transaction is much for favorable for the seller if the price is considered by buyers, and by their agents, to be appropriate and perhaps a tiny bit low. We’re not talking unrealistic, but a price that will be viewed as a good value by buyers. If that’s in place the likelihood dramatically increases of getting at least a second offer, and a more satisfactory transaction as viewed by several metrics. Below I show how average days on the market is impacted: properties that sold over asking sold within 10 days – 3+ weeks (there will be some variation based on when properties are marketed vs. when they enter the Multiple Listing Service). Properties that sold below asking were on the market on average twice as long, and in some cases the difference was extreme: nine days vs. 73 days last year in the Claremont Hills.

Average DOM in East Bay Neighborhoods 2011

In most neighborhoods the difference between list and sales price was greater in the negative direction. For example, for Berkeley as whole properties that sold over asking did so by an average of 4%, but properties that sold below list did so on average by 10%.
There are more subjective, but also important differences in transactions where there is more than one offer: buyers are more likely to have fewer, and shorter contingencies. They are much less likely to ask for concessions from the seller during negotiations. Overall, the transactions with multiple offers tend to be much smoother and less stressful for all concerned.

I’m looking forward to the first open house of my new listing in the North Berkeley Hills, in Berkeley CA. Recently we’ve had seen stunning views from up there, including dynamite sunsets. This home is truly just right: not too big, not too small, all the space is used well and it feels cozy, warm and peaceful. The neighborhood brings those qualities as well, with watchful, but respectful neighbors. I was up one evening and heard something I never hear at my home on the Arlington: the sound of a breeze through the tall fir trees. This property has the feeling of a retreat, but my clients were at their UC Campus offices in just over 15 minutes, and bus access is excellent. In addition to three bedrooms, there is an alcove in the living room that one of my clients used as her office, and her partner used the separate cottage in the garden–a quite wonderful space! I’ll be open two Sundays, the 29th and Feb. 5th. For even more photos visit www.923CrestonRoad.com. List price is $685,000.

Ultra Charming Split-level Home with Cottage in North Berkeley Hills!

Overview Maps Photos Features Description Open House Market Stats

$685,000 Single Family Home Main Features 3 Bedrooms 1 Bathroom 1 Partial Bathroom Interior: 1,332 sqft Lot: 4,950 sqft Location 923 Creston Road BERKELEY, CA 94708 USA To get updates on open home dates and other property events, please click the “Like” button below:

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Arlene Baxter McGuire Real Estate (510) 7171799 eastbay.bungalows@gmail.com http://www.GreenBungalows.info      Listed by: McGuire Real Estate

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